Hoop Dreams

Florida won the NCAA Championship without a single highly touted high school recruit in their rotation.

• Walter Clayton Jr., Florida’s leading scorer, was a zero star recruit out of high school. He was actually a better football player and had a lot of high major football offers, including one from Florida. Ended up playing basketball at Iona, had a breakout sophomore season, and transferred to Florida.

• Alijah Martin, Florida’s starting shooting guard, was a zero star recruit out of high school. He was actually a better football player (3 star QB with offers from Tulane, UAB and others). Ended up playing basketball at FAU, where he made multiple deep March runs before transferring to Florida.

• Will Richard, Florida’s starting combo guard, was a three star prospect that initially committed to Belmont and transferred to Florida after two years.

• Alex Condon, Florida’s starting power forward, was a three star prospect from Australia.

• Ruben Chinyelu, Florida’s starting center, was a four star high school recruit, the highest ranked HS prospect in Florida’s starting lineup.

This is quite literally the basketball version of Moneyball.

Powered by former Ivy League coach and analytics junkie, Todd Golden.

Neither Florida nor Houston played a single freshman in the championship game…

A huge reason for this was the 2023 ruling that allows college athletes to transfer as many time as they please.

So now, college recruiting staff can find new experienced players from every class - sophomore transfers, junior transfers, senior transfers, and grad transfers.

Unless a player has lottery potential, it’s a tough sell to give a freshman player a star role on a competitive Power 4 team.

NIL has completely changed college basketball.

In 2022, ESPN reported that Isaiah Wong’s agent said Wong would leave Miami if they didn’t offer more NIL money. Wong just came off an All-ACC season where he averaged 15 points per game and led his team to the Elite Eight.

His agent, Adam Papas of NEXT Sports, said: “Isaiah would like to stay at Miami… He had a great season leading his team to the Elite Eight. He has seen what incoming Miami Hurricane basketball players are getting in NIL and would like his NIL to reflect that he was a team leader of an Elite Eight team.”

The “incoming Miami Hurricane basketball player” Papas was referencing was Nigel Pack.

Pack transferred from Kansas State to Miami in a deal that included $800,000 over two years and a car. He was considered the number one player in the portal at that time, and his compensation package was slightly better than Wong’s, rumored to be slightly under $400,000 for the upcoming season. Wong’s agent ended up walking back the threat after public backlash and Wong did not enter the portal.

Donovan Dent, a top player in the portal this cycle, signed to UCLA for $3.3M.

JT Toppin, a top player in college basketball this year, re-signed to Texas Tech for a reported $4M.

NIL money for transfers have reached a peak, and the implications will be interesting.

The most interesting implication has to do with the future of the NBA draft.

Donovan Dent, a fringe second round pick if he were to declare, will get paid more next year than Tristan da Silva, the 18th pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.

• Silva currently averages 7 points per game in the NBA, playing 22 minutes a game and shooting 41% from the field for a playoff team.

JT Toppin, a projected early second round pick, will get paid more next year than Dalton Knecht, the 17th pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.

• Knecht currently averages 9 points per game in the NBA, playing 19 minutes and shooting 46% from the field for a playoff team.

Does the draft still make sense for sophomores and juniors projected to go in the late first or second round?

Or will it gradually become a process that only surefire lottery picks and seniors without eligibility pursue?

Surely the answer is more nuanced, but I think a shift is on the horizon.

Here are three predictions I have, assuming the money in college basketball is here to stay:

NBA Draft Process = surefire lottery picks and seniors

As mentioned above, college players are able to both test draft waters and transfer to another school. Until this loophole is closed, players will test the waters, collect feedback, and in the case the first round is not likely, head back to school and still make millions.

The only caveat is that seniors who run out of eligibility will go all in on the process, so expect for the second round of the draft to get much older this year and next, with a few more overseas players as well.

Another note I want to touch on briefly is the imperfect pay scale comparison between the NBA and college. Even though Dent will make more than Silva and Toppin more than Knecht, the NBA guys - Silva and Knecht - have guaranteed contracts over a longer time horizon, which outweighs a single year of good pay.

More freshmen choose star roles at mid-major schools

Don’t be surprised if more five and four star players start choosing Davidson over Duke…

High school recruits could start opting for top mid-major schools or lower ranked high major schools in order to ensure a large role, which will then translate to higher paydays when they transfer.

I don’t think this matters for the top-10 or so recruits out of high school, but a smaller shift among top-200 players could take place as the market gets smarter.

Parents invest more into basketball training (and football)

Parents will eventually start investing more into basketball and football training.

You don’t need to make it to the league anymore, both basketball and football players at high major schools are getting paid like lower level pros.

This adds 4 years of career earnings for future pros and 4 years of great pay for those who don’t make it.

NIL money justifies dollars spent on expensive training and equipment for high school players, as the ROI is both higher probability and realized quicker.

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